Category: Crew On Two

Since 1949, world championship motorcycle racing has visited Assen, annually, without fail. This will therefore be the 69th running of the Dutch TT as a world championship race, and an important one, especially for Yamaha.
It has been way over one year since Maverick Vinales last won a race, back in Le Mans 2017, but for his teammate, Valentino Rossi, and the Iwata factory, last week marked the one-year anniversary of their last win. Furthermore, the day of the race, July 1st, will be the 63rd birthday of Yamaha’s motorcycle division; so an important weekend for Yamaha awaits. Moreover Rossi,  second in the championship,  abit twenty seven points back,  he is not theoretically, out of contention – so a win this weekend would ensure that his deficit in the championship is cut to less than one race win. Also, Assen has long been one of Rossi’s best circuits on the calendar, perhaps his absolute best, winning ten times at the Dutch track in his, now, 22 and a bit season long career, even winning in a tough 2013 season. Assen may prove one of the best circuits for the Yamaha, too. Not only does the M1 suit the fast, sweeping corners which arrive after De Strubben, and the end of the first sector, but the usually cooler Dutch climate can work in the favour of Yamaha, who tend to struggle in the heat. That said, the forecast for this weekend seems remarkably stable and warm, like it was for World Superbike earlier in the year.

Rossi himself, has had a tremendous run of races since the return to Europe. It started with a difficult Jerez, where he lucked into fifth place thanks to the triple crash of Dani Pedrosa, Jorge Lorenzo and Andrea Dovizioso, and that was followed by three third places in the next three races: Le Mans, Mugello and Barcelona. Again, he was fortunate in Barcelona that Dovizioso crashed, but with the current situation of Yamaha, capitalising on the errors of others is more important than usual. The Mugello podium was also quite special, losing the front in almost every corner throughout the race to finally take his first Italian GP podium since 2015. But what about this weekend for The Doctor? The importance of this weekend resulting in a win ultimately means little; what is important for Rossi and for Yamaha this weekend is whether the M1 will be able to cope well with the warmer conditions and whether it can conserve the tyre sufficiently in the race to be there at the end.

For the #25 side of the Movistar Yamaha garage, the situation is different. Maverick Vinales has suffered ever since he went to Yamaha in the early phases of races, even in the first races of last year, even the ones he won. Many times after tests, or after Saturdays on race weekends, Vinales has said something along the lines of ‘We tried with the full tank, we’re happy. I feel good,’ only for the next race to see precisely the same pattern as the previous ones: a poor start, an inability to overtake or ride quickly in the first laps, followed by a final five or seven laps which are as fast as anyone else out there. Once more, after the Monday test on the day following the Catalan GP two weeks ago, Vinales claimed a step had been made with his M1, that he could go to Assen and finally make the start he needs to, to be able to make use of his late-race pace. Only on Sunday will we understand whether he will be able to fight for a good result.

But ultimately, the layout of Assen works well for Yamaha. And, typically, what works for Yamaha works for Jorge Lorenzo. The winner of the previous two Grands Prix is arriving this weekend with all the confidence in the world – who wouldn’t, after dominating the last two races? However, it is excessive confidence which Lorenzo blamed for his crash in 2013 which arguably cost him the World Championship that year, but more importantly broke his left collarbone and left a minefield of mental scars which have haunted the five-times World Champion ever since, especially when returning to the origin of the damage, which makes absolute sense. In 2013 he would have won, but the broken collarbone prevented that, although it did not stop him from racing (an act of relative heroism). As a result, Lorenzo has only one MotoGP win in Assen, back in 2010 – his first championship year in the premier class. Since then, Lorenzo has only had one podium in Holland, in 2015 – he was taken out by Marco Simoncelli in 2011, by Alvaro Bautista in 2012; the collarbone prevented a win in 2013; it rained in 2014, 2016, 2017. However, consistent, dry, warm weather – on paper – suits Lorenzo perfectly. But the Ducati has suffered in Assen in recent years (with one exception which we will get to later), its stability combined with a lack of turning making it a very physical twenty six laps on Saturday, and more recently Sunday, and none of them being particularly rapid. Maybe this weekend, Lorenzo can change that, and if he can fight for the win, that is a very worrying occurrence for the opposition.

That Ducati exception, came from Danilo Petrucci last year. If it weren’t for Alex Rins getting in the way at the end of the race when Petrucci was challenging Rossi for the lead, Yamaha could have been waiting for 13 months by now for a win, and Ducati would have signed a Grand Prix winner to replace the Honda-bound Lorenzo for 2019. The rain towards the end of the race played into the hands of the #9 Pramac Ducati rider last year – having nothing to lose helped Petrucci in those conditions. But this weekend has the potential to be a difficult one for Petrux, partly for the reasons mentioned previously about the difficulties of the Desmosedici in Assen, but also because the higher temperatures, combined with the old, relatively slippery Dutch asphalt and Petrucci’s aggressive riding style could leave him without grip at the end of the race.

Andrea Dovizioso struggled last year in Holland, relying on the late rain to allow him to fight for the podium, although he ultimately missed out. Dovizioso has the unfortunate situation this weekend of being on a motorcycle that does not particularly suit Assen, with a riding style which does not particularly suit Assen. Dovi brakes very late, carries quite high entry speed, but not much apex speed, which doesn’t really work in Assen. However, the factors which could work against Petrucci have the potential to work for Dovizioso, who is the master of tyre conservation. However, you have to say that the most likely rider is Lorenzo to end Ducati’s 10-year winless run in Assen.

Marc Marquez comes into this weekend with a 27-point championship advantage and, probably, as the favourite for the race win. Marquez has five wins in Assen, including three in a row in 125cc and Moto2 between 2010 and 2012. He is without a win in Holland since 2014, but with fair reasons: his Honda was subpar in 2015 and his ability to even fight for the win was impressive enough; 2016 was a situation where he had to think of the championship whilst sat behind Jack Miller; and 2017 was a similar situation to ’16 with rain at the end bringing out the rarely seen cautious Marc Marquez, although he still threw down a huge move on Cal Crutchlow at the Ramshoek on the final lap to take third place. Fair weather and a much improved RC213V compared to previous years could put Marquez out of reach on Sunday, although excessively high temperatures could see the return of the front tyre issues that have plagued the Honda rider in the last two races.

Unusually, Dani Pedrosa is currently attracting more attention than Marc Marquez, primarily due to his contractual situation. It is seeming more and more likely that the Spaniard will go to the proposed Petronas Yamaha team for next year, but the announcement of the team has to come before Pedrosa can announce that he is riding for them – and that is if he is riding for them at all. The warm, stable weather should help Dani this weekend, who has struggled at Assen in recent years, but was strong in Barcelona and feeling better physically ahead of this weekend.

Johann Zarco will be hoping for a stronger weekend for this round, having suffered in the last races. The Frenchman was on pole for the Dutch TT last year, and fought for the victory for most of the race until he pit for a bike change anticipating an increase in the rainfall which never arrived. Another potential dark horse this weekend is Jack Miller, who took his one and only MotoGP win in Assen back in 2016.

An unusually warm weekend in Assen awaits, with birthdays and anniversaries, the potential for a second triple-winner of 2018, but who will win the first Dutch TT to be held in July?

Jorge Lorenzo qualified on pole position for the Catalan MotoGP, with a stunning final sector on Saturday afternoon. It was his first Ducati pole and gave him the perfect opportunity to put his superior pace to use, and demolish the field as he had done two weeks previously in Mugello. His only real threats came from Marc Marquez and Andrea Dovizioso, who had shared similar pace with each other across the weekend and had the potential to upset Lorenzo’s rhythm.

Marquez made a great start, whereas Lorenzo did not, and made it into first place, with the buffer of Andrea Iannone’s Suzuki between him and Lorenzo. However, the number 29 ran wide when trying to pass Marquez for the lead on lap one in turn 10, allowing Marquez back through and the #99 Ducati into second place as well. This let Lorenzo line up perfectly a pass into turn one. Marquez defended the inside as hard as he could but Lorenzo was unstoppable on the brakes.

From there, Marquez tried to stay with Lorenzo and, despite looking at ease, he was clearly on the limit because, when Dovizioso crashed behind him at turn five on lap nine, he dropped the pace and let Lorenzo go by two seconds, preserving his second place and the twenty points that come with it.
Jorge Lorenzo’s pace in this race was incredible. Between lap seven and thirteen, his lap times were separated by less than one tenth of a second, and over the whole race only 1.2 seconds separated his fastest time from his slowest. This was vintage Jorge Lorenzo and when he rides like that, there is no one person on the planet who can stop him.

Of course, demolishing the best riders in the world two races running opens up inevitable questions about a World Championship challenge. Can he do it? Probably not, but possibly. Over the past two races we have seen that Lorenzo has the pace to win races, the problem is that they were both at circuits he adores. We haven’t yet seen how he might go at a circuit he is less suited to. Another problem is that he is forty-nine points behind Marc Marquez in the championship, and it’s perhaps fair to say that taking two race wins out of Marquez and with twelve rounds left is not so easy. Furthermore, Lorenzo is not as consistent as Marquez. Where a bad weekend for Marc in the remaining races might be a fourth or a fifth, it could be a lot worse for Jorge, especially if the track conditions are neither wet nor dry. Speaking of which, Assen is next, the birthplace of Jorge Lorenzo’s wet weather demons, courtesy of the crash he suffered in the Thursday practice at the Dutch TT back in 2013 in which he broke his collarbone. In the years since 2013, Lorenzo has only managed to podium in Assen once, in 2015 on his way to World Championship number five.

After Assen comes Sachsenring, another of Lorenzo’s weaker circuits; and the other thing that Assen and Sachsenring have in common is that Marc Marquez loves them both: he has five wins in Holland and is unbeaten since 2008 in Germany. However, if Jorge can somehow keep the gap to Marquez below fifty points after the next two races, the ones which come after the summer break are far more favourable: Brno suits, both him and the bike, as does Austria. He goes well in Silverstone and the Desmosedici won there last year in the hands of Dovizioso.

Misano is the perfect place to be an enemy, Lorenzo’s favourite role! Aragon is one of his best circuits during the season and he is the only one, other than Marquez to win there since 2013. In Japan too, Lorenzo moulds Motegi into his circuit by focussing on corner exit and acceleration from low speed, Phillip Island again suits his style, so long as it does not provide changeable conditions. He has always enjoyed Sepang and he was under the lap record there in this season’s winter test and lastly Valencia is another of his best circuits. Thailand is a question mark, but in theory the Ducati should work quite well there. So, Lorenzo can fight for the championship, but the next two rounds can eliminate that possibility.

For Marc Marquez, the race was perfect. He missed the win, but that does not matter. After Mugello, Andrea Dovizioso had closed down the Spaniard’s advantage in the championship to 29 points – a recoverable margin. But after Barcelona, Dovi is precisely as far back as Lorenzo: 49 points. Furthermore, Marquez’s advantage over the factory Yamahas increased to 27 over Valentino Rossi, with Maverick Vinales a further eleven back. With Assen and Sachsenring being races Marquez can definitely win, he could have the title all but won by the summer break.

Valentino Rossi’s race proved uneventful and yet it exceeded expectations. He did not have the pace of either of the factory Ducatis or Marquez, but the crash of Dovizioso allowed the number 46 to recover a podium position, more than he could have expected. In Assen next time out, it will be almost precisely one year since he or Yamaha last won a Grand Prix, but despite this the Italian is still in mathematical championship contention. There still needs to be more found from Yamaha with the acceleration of the M1, and what they tried in the Monday test after the race did not aid that, but with what he has there is no questioning the great job Rossi is doing, and in Assen you can never discount him.

Cal Crutchlow finished fourth. He was embroiled in a mid-race battle with Dani Pedrosa and Danilo Petrucci, but upped and left just quick enough to evade the attentions of Johann Zarco and Maverick Vinales when they turned up in the fourth-place battle with just a few laps to go. In truth, it seemed that Cal could have finished on the podium in the first part of the race. He took over one second out of Valentino Rossi when he was chasing down Pedrosa and Petrucci, and dealt with the number 9 quickly, only for his charge to be halted by Pedrosa, whose defence was very strong. Crutchlow also ran wide in turn 10 at one point to hand the fifth position back to Petrucci, and that meant that it was only with seven laps to go that he passed Pedrosa for fourth place. He duly departed, but was too late to do anything about Rossi. Anyway, a fourth place finish from eighth on the grid was a good result for Crutchlow, especially as he went against the Honda grain by using the soft rear tyre.

Dani Pedrosa did a similar thing, using medium tyres front and rear, rather than the hard-hard combination which was more expected from the Hondas. This worked for him in the beginning of the race, because he had enough grip, but also enough support, to make a good pace. However, by the end of the race, he had no rear grip left – edge grip nor drive grip – so he had little to fight Crutchlow with. Even still, he positioned the bike very well, which is why it took Cal so long to get by the number 26, but in the end tyre grip won out, as usual, and Pedrosa wound up in fifth place, just ahead of Maverick Vinales.

And what a disappointing race it was for Vinales. Through the weekend he had spoken about how he had worked to be more comfortable in the race, how he felt he had found something for the first five laps. But he had no chance from the start, from which he put the M1 in reverse and fell through the pack to the back end of the top ten. Whilst his teammate, Valentino Rossi, and also Johann Zarco, are able to be aggressive in the first laps, Vinales is not, and this issue must be fixed if he is to win races. This is not a new thing, though, it was the same last year: in Qatar, he did not get going until halfway through the race. It was the same story in Argentina. In Assen he crashed trying to recover from a bad qualifying and a poor start and he could have won in Phillip Island had he started better. The difference is that now, these poor starts ruin his whole race because he cannot overtake – whereas he was able to still come through to the podium or even win in 2017 after a bad start, in 2018 he can go nowhere. The worst thing for Vinales is that it is only him having the problem, and whilst he is suffering with this, the other side of the Movistar Yamaha garage is enjoying its fourth podium of the year and third in succession. Something has to change in the #25 box, and quickly.

One positive for Vinales, is that he was three seconds clear of Johann Zarco at the end of the race, which didn’t look remotely likely before Le Mans. Since then, though, the Frenchman has become a little bit invisible. It was somewhat expected in Mugello, because Johann struggled there last year, but in Barcelona, he finished fifth last year, so only seventh place this year seems a bit odd. But, next up is Assen, and for Johann that is the scene of his first MotoGP pole position which he took in wet conditions last season. Hopefully for him he can have another good weekend this year in Holland to get his season back on track.

Danilo Petrucci had a strong start to the race, but suffered towards the end, no doubt with tyre wear, and could only manage eighth place. seven seconds behind him was Alvaro Bautista who scored his fourth successive top ten finish with ninth place, a couple of seconds clear of the factory Suzuki of Andrea Iannone who had a bizarre race, going from challenging for the lead on lap one to being 24 seconds away from the win by the end, and down in tenth place.

Pol Espargaro took KTMs best result of the season in eleventh place, ahead of Scott Redding who had a good race to twelfth – a good result after probably his best weekend on the Aprilia. Thirteenth went to Karel Abraham, who was the final finisher. Franco Morbidelli was fourteenth, but classified three laps down.

Only fourteen classified finishers leaves plenty of retirements: Mika Kallio was the first to go on lap one; then Sylvain Guintoli crashed out two laps later; Tom Luthi went one lap after Guintoli; Aleix Espargaro crashed one lap after Luthi; then came Simeon’s exit with seventeen to go; one lap before Dovi crashed; then Rins retired with thirteen laps left; two laps later Taka Nakagami folded the front in turn five whilst trying to pass Bradley Smith, and took the British rider with him; Jack Miller crashed with seven to go; Tito Rabat’ Ducati blew up one lap after Miller bowed out; and finally Hafizh Syahrin had a strange crash at turn four.

A race of attrition, then, in the premier class for the Catalan GP, but it was Jorge Lorenzo who came out on top. Can he continue this form in Assen, or will Marquez reclaim his authority in the 2018 World Championship?

After taking his first Ducati win two weeks ago in Mugello, Jorge Lorenzo today took his first Ducati pole position with a stunning 1’38.680 at the death of Q2 to beat Marc Marquez. It was Jorge’s 40^th pole position in the premier class and 66^th in all classes, and as a result we can fairly safely assume that Mr. Lorenzo is ‘back’. A shame for Ducati; they wouldn’t have minded too much if Mugello proved to be a one-off, but it seems that Lorenzo really has solved the Desmosedici puzzle, and about two weeks too late for him to remain in Ducati. But can the number 99 win tomorrow? Well, possibly. His race pace this weekend has been the best of anyone, and by a reasonable distance. However, tomorrow will show the reality of the situation regarding the effectiveness of the modified fuel tank Lorenzo had asked for so insistently. It worked in Mugello but only tomorrow will we see whether that is transferable to other tracks. If he is there until the end, it works generally, if he falls back again like in Le Mans, there is still more to be done. But, ultimately, Jorge Lorenzo should win tomorrow.

However, it won’t be entirely simple, being MotoGP an’ all. For a start, Marc Marquez is starting alongside Lorenzo on the front row of the grid in second place. Leaving aside the longest front end slide to be save in all of history, Marquez’ day was pretty flawless. Sure, it looked more difficult for him to make lap time than it was for the likes of Lorenzo, but when does Marc Marquez, or any Honda rider for that matter, look as though he isn’t on the brink of a crash at every corner? The answer would be never. From this, it is perhaps possible to say that the Honda is not necessarily a more rounded motorcycle this year, but it is perhaps better at doing what it was already good at. Either way, that save was a stunner, and so was his qualifying, coming from Q1 – after a crash in FP3 cost him a final time attack to make Q2 directly from the combined free practice times – to so nearly take the pole position; if he had done it he would have been the first rider to ever come from Q1 to make pole position in MotoGP (Tom Sykes took pole in Sepang 2016 for World Superbike after coming from Q1).

But the most important for Marquez is that he is in the front row. If he can get in front of Lorenzo and stay in front tomorrow, he can definitely take the fight to Jorge. Perhaps critically, it seems again like Marquez can run the hard rear tyre. He had a few off-throttle slides on it, but his pace was good, so it depends on two things: track temperature and whether Marc wants to take the risk. The second point is almost invalid. It’s also worth pointing out that whilst he was strong on the soft tyre, Marquez also seemed quite comfortable on the soft compound rear that most of the rest of the field seem intent on running tomorrow afternoon. Marquez looks strong, but it will be important for him to break Lorenzo’s rhythm.

Marquez proved to be the Honda meat in a Ducati front row sandwich, as Andrea Dovizioso recovered from a difficult first run in Q2 to make the front row in his second flying lap. He was a way off, three tenths separating Dovi from teammate and polesitter Lorenzo, but Dovizioso has never been a pole hound, and you know that he has been working on race pace all weekend. Again, like Marquez, it seems like he can run either the hard or the soft rear, although you get the feeling he would rather run the soft – as we know, the Ducati works best when there is good grip. With all the glory Lorenzo has enjoyed in the last races, it will be important for Dovi to re-establish his dominance in the factory Ducati garage tomorrow. He can win, but it would be a surprise.

Fourth place in qualifying went, arguably surprisingly, to Maverick Vinales. First of all, P4 for Vinales in a qualifying at Barcelona with 50 degree track temperatures shows Yamaha are making progress with the issues which the M1 has, and this is very promising for them for both tomorrow and the rest of the season. Through all the weekend, Maverick has looked good, and more importantly has been constantly favouring the soft compound rear tyre. Especially in comparison to his teammate, Valentino Rossi, who seems to be edging towards the medium rear for tomorrow. This is positive for Vinales, as the soft rear tyre could give him the grip at the start, especially if many people run the medium or hard rear tyres, as it could allow him to make a decent start, not lose too much in the first stages of the race and finally use his late race pace to charge for the podium, and a factory Yamaha podium in Barcelona would be, to say the least, unexpected.

Andrea Iannone topped FP4, despite being very inconsistent and not really making a long run, but could only manage fifth in qualifying. A middle-of-the-second-row start for Iannone tomorrow gives him a good opportunity to make a good start and put himself in the mix with the Ducatis and Marquez. In the morning’s FP3, Iannone was matching the pace of Lorenzo, high 39s. If he can repeat this tomorrow he can be in the mix for the podium or even the win, it’s just about whether he can make the soft rear tyre last in the heat.

Danilo Petrucci rounded out the second row. It would be a surprise to see Petrucci remain in contention tomorrow, being a rider who tends to be quite hard on the tyre, but opposing that idea is the pace of the Italian, who was running in the mid-1’40s today, which pretty much matches everyone bar Lorenzo and Marquez. Temperature, as for everyone, will be the critical factor for Petrux tomorrow, because of all the rider who are probably looking to run the soft rear tyre, he is the one who will suffer with it the most.

The first spot on row three will be occupied by Valentino Rossi tomorrow as he qualified seventh. The Italian was disappointed because he felt his potential was enough for the second row, but a mistake on what could have been his best lap at turn ten cost him that, and left him with row three for tomorrow. Unfortunately for Rossi, it looks like he can’t make the soft compound rear last the distance and will have to run the medium to get to the end without falling off a lap time cliff. Despite this, Rossi suggests the biggest issues will come from the front tyre, he feels that this is the limiting factor. Many riders have favoured the soft front this weekend, including Rossi, but in his fastest run in FP4, he ran with a medium front and rear. We know that Rossi always likes to focus on the race pace, so maybe he has something for tomorrow, but after Saturday his chances don’t look quite as good as one day ago.

Rossi will be joined on the third row tomorrow by Johann Zarco who has had another quiet weekend, but his pace is mid-1’40s, so he can fight for a good result tomorrow, and Tito Rabat who has been yet again very impressive on the Avintia Ducati. Surprisingly, Tito’s pace is even better than Zarco’s, and arguably even better than Rossi’s. If he can make the soft rear tyre last the distance tomorrow, which it looks like he can, Rabat could turn a fair few heads tomorrow.

Row four is an all-Honda affair, with Cal Crutchlow leading Dani Pedrosa and Takaaki Nakagami. Jack Miller, Hafizh Syahrin and a disappointing Alex Rins complete row five, whilst row six consists of Aleix Espargaro, Bradley Smith and Franco Morbidelli. Pol Espargaro was nineteenth, ahead of Scott Redding and Karel Abraham, whilst the eighth row sees Alvaro Bautista in twenty-second ahead of Mika Kallio and Tom Luthi. Sylvain Guintoli and Xavier Simeon who crashed at turn four complete the grid.

Featured Image courtesy of Ducati Media